Insights from the June Economic Nowcast

The Smart Data Foundry June Economic Nowcast reveals that 10% of British adults continue to spend more than they earn, with average weekly incomes falling by 2.76% to £306 per week on last month’s Nowcast figures.

Our Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making.

By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economic landscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively.

Insights from June’s Nowcast

The June Nowcast contains three indicators, representing economic wellbeing and productivity across Great Britain. Figures are taken from a rolling average up to the observation point in mid-May. These are compared to the previous month’s figures (or previous quarter for SMB productivity) to identify trends and insights.

Average weekly income

This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 11th May 2025.

Average weekly income dropped by £8.58 per week to £306.35. This 2.76% drop equates to £451 over the course of a year, and is a 4% decrease from the £319 per week reported in April’s Nowcast.

What to look out for next time:

National Living Wage went up by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour for over 21s on 1st April. This Nowcast update, observed on 11th May, may not fully reflect the impact of this increase as it is based on a 13-week rolling average. We should continue to monitor this.

‘Income’ includes salary, pensions and benefits, so we should not assume that the decline in income is purely due to salaries shrinking. Other factors could include reduced pension incomes following the impact of US Tariffs implemented in the spring of this year; pensioners choosing to drawdown their pensions may have seen their incomes affected, or be choosing to draw less from their pension in the hope of recouping growth over time.

Living beyond means

This indicator measures the proportion of people whose income does not cover their expenditure each month. This is based on a 13-week rolling average to 11th May 2025.

10.7% of people in our sample spent 120% of their income, which is static with the previous month.

What to look out for next time:

April saw household bills go up (Council Tax up by 5% and the energy price-cap up by £111 for a typical household, for example). We are seeing people continuing to closely manage their finances in response; next month’s update may shed more light on how April’s bill increases are impacting in the long term.

SMB productivity

This indicator measures revenue in generated per employee of UK small businesses.

The average revenue per employee was £10,585 this quarter (Jan - March 2025), which is down 0.83% on the previous quarter (Sep - Dec 2024).

What to look out for next time:

April saw Employer National Insurance contributions increase to 15% (up from 13.8%). Whilst this may not directly affect revenue, it will be pertinent to monitor how this increase impacts small businesses over the coming months, as some businesses may freeze hiring or increase their prices to offset these costs. It is expected that the impact will be seen in the next quarterly update in September.

Deeper insights into SMB productivity can be found in the Quarterly Small Business Tracker, produced by Smart Data Foundry in collaboration with Sage and CEBR.

About the data behind the Nowcast

Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality.

The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on 5.3 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter.

Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here.