Insights from the May Economic Nowcast
The Smart Data Foundry Economic Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making. See April’s Nowcast here.
The May Nowcast reveals that just over 10% of British adults in our sample are spending more than they earn (down 3.3% on the previous month) and that average incomes also fell, with average weekly incomes now at £314.75.
By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economic landscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively.
Insights from May’s Nowcast
The May Nowcast contains three indicators, representing economic wellbeing and productivity across Great Britain. Figures are taken from a rolling average up to the observation point in mid-April. These are compared to the previous month’s figures (or previous quarter for SMB productivity) to provide immediate insight.
Average weekly income
This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 13th April 2025.
Average weekly income dropped by £4.75 per week to £314.75. This 1.54% drop equates to £221 over the course of a year.
What to look out for next time:
National Living Wage went up by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour for over 21s on 1st April. This Nowcast update, observed on 13th April, does not yet show the full impact of this increase. The June Nowcast update should show the full impact of this increase to National Living Wage. It will be useful to monitor this metric in conjunction with the Living Beyond Means metric, as wage rises may not fully offset rising costs.
Living beyond means
This indicator measures the proportion of people whose income does not cover their expenditure each month. This is based on a 13-week rolling average to 13th April 2025.
10.7% of people in our sample spent 120% of their income which is down 3.3% on the previous month.
What to look out for next time:
April saw household bills go up (Council Tax up by 5% and the energy price-cap up by £111 for a typical household, for example), and we shuould see more of the impact of these increases in next month’s update. However, a decrease in people living beyond their means alongside declining average wages could indicate people further tightening their belts in response to the economic environment, rather than an improvement in their financial wellbeing.
SMB productivity
This indicator measures revenue in generated per employee of UK small businesses.
The average revenue per employee was £10,585 this quarter (Jan - March 2025), which is down 0.83% on the previous quarter (Sep - Dec 2024).
What to look out for next time:
April saw Employer National Insurance contributions increase to 15% (up from 13.8%). Whilst this may not directly affect revenue, it will be pertinent to monitor how this increase impacts small businesses over the coming months, as some businesses may freeze hiring or increase their prices to offset these costs. It is expected that the impact will be seen in the next quarterly update in September.
Deeper insights into SMB productivity can be found in the Quarterly Small Business Tracker, produced by Smart Data Foundry in collaboration with Sage and CEBR.
About the data behind the Nowcast
Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality.
The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on 5.3 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter.
Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here.
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