Updates on July's Economic Nowcast
The Smart Data Foundry June Economic Nowcast reveals that 11% of British adults continue to spend more than they earn – a 0.4% increase -, with average weekly incomes recovering slightly, up to £307 per week on last month’s Nowcast figures.
Our Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making.
By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economic landscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively.
Insights from July's Nowcast
The July Nowcast contains three indicators, representing economic wellbeing and productivity across Great Britain. Figures are taken from a rolling average up to the observation point in mid-June. These are compared to the previous month’s figures (or previous quarter for SMB productivity) to identify trends and insights.
Average weekly income
This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 8th June 2025.
Average weekly income rose by £1.31 per week to £307.66. This 0.25% increase equates to an average of an extra £68 over the course of a year, but does not correct the longer term downward trend we have seen since April. Average weekly incomes are down by 3.8% on April’s Nowcast figures, or £589 over the course of a year.
National Living Wage went up by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour for over 21s on 1st April. This Nowcast update, observed on 8th June, suggests that the increase to minimum wage has not yet provided a boost to take-home pay. A potential explanation is the rise in employer National Insurance premiums leading to reduced hours or cutting back on overtime payments, limiting the impact of hourly wage increases; we will continue to monitor this.
‘Income’ includes salary, pensions and benefits, so we should not assume that the trend in incomes declining since April is solely down to salaries. Pension incomes may have been affected following the impact of US Tariffs, for example.
What to look out for next time
August's Nowcast, observed in July, should start to show the impact of summer earning and spending habits; people caring for children during school holidays may see their incomes decline, as they cut back on hours, and summer events may lead to increased spending on leisure and hospitality - which could be reflected in average incomes being boosted by extra staffing required for these busier periods.
Living beyond means
This indicator measures the proportion of people whose income does not cover their expenditure each month. This is based on a 13-week rolling average to 8th June 2025.
11.1% of people in our sample spent 120% of their income, which is an increase of 0.25% on the previous month but a longer-term decrease of 3.5% since April.
What to look out for next time:
This is a positive 4-month trend, with a reduction in the number of people living beyond their means since April. However, the month-on-month comparison shows that around 588,000 people in our sample are persistently struggling to make ends meet.
SMB productivity
This indicator measures revenue in generated per employee of UK small businesses.
The average revenue per employee was £10,585 this quarter (Jan - March 2025), which is down 0.83% on the previous quarter (Sep - Dec 2024).
What to look out for next time:
April saw Employer National Insurance contributions increase to 15% (up from 13.8%). Whilst this may not directly affect revenue, it will be pertinent to monitor how this increase impacts small businesses over the coming months, as some businesses may freeze hiring or increase their prices to offset these costs. It is expected that the impact will be seen in the next quarterly update in September.
Deeper insights into SMB productivity can be found in the Quarterly Small Business Tracker, produced by Smart Data Foundry in collaboration with Sage and CEBR.
About the data behind the Nowcast
Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality.
The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on around 5 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter.
Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here.
