Updates on August's Economic Nowcast
The Smart Data Foundry August Economic Nowcast reveals that average weekly incomes for British adults have jumped by 7.29% on last month, with the average weekly income now standing at £337. However, 10.6% of British adults continue to spend more than they earn, though this is a 0.5% decrease on July.
Our Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making.
By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economic landscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively.
For the first time, the Smart Data Foundry now includes regional breakdowns, enabling users to compare trends in economic wellbeing between the GB-average and Scotland, England and Wales.
Insights from August’s Nowcast
The August Nowcast contains three indicators, representing economic wellbeing and productivity across Great Britain. Figures are taken from a rolling average up to the observation point in mid-July. These are compared to the previous month’s figures (or previous quarter for SMB productivity) to identify trends and insights.
Average weekly income
This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 13th July 2025.
Average GB weekly income rose by £29.50 per week to £337.48. This 7.29% increase equates to an average of an extra £1534 over the course of a year, correcting the longer term downward trend we have seen since April which up until this month showed a loss of £589 over the course of a year.
For the first time, we are able to compare the national average for Great Britain with the averages for England, Wales and Scotland.
England saw the biggest boost at 6.89%, ahead of Scotland at 6.29% and Wales at 5.81%. However, Scots have the highest incomes overall – on average they are £27.56 per week better off than their English counterparts.*
What to look out for next time:
September’s Nowcast, observed in August, will help us to see if the recovery in incomes is a sign that the downward trend we have seen since April is reversing, or a seasonal adjustment. We will also start to build up a picture of how the national average compares to those of England, Wales and Scotland.
Living beyond means
This indicator measures the proportion of people whose income does not cover their expenditure each month. This is based on a 13-week rolling average to 8th June 2025.
10.6% of people in our sample spent 120% of their income, which is a decrease of 0.5% on the previous month but a longer-term decrease of 4% since April.
What to look out for next time:
This is a positive 5-month trend, with a reduction in the number of people living beyond their means since April. However, the month-on-month comparison shows that around 530,000 people in our sample are persistently struggling to make ends meet.
SMB productivity
This indicator measures revenue in generated per employee of UK small businesses.
The average revenue per employee was £11,028 this quarter (April - June 2025), which is up 4.19% on the previous quarter (Jan - March 2025).
What to look out for next time:
We expected that increases to Employer National Insurance contributions would have a negative impact on productivity, but this does not appear to be the case. Both productivity, in terms of £ per employee, and mean employee count are up (3.99%). However, economic growth remains sluggish and we should continue to monitor this over the coming quarter.
Deeper insights into SMB productivity can be found in the Quarterly Small Business Tracker, produced by Smart Data Foundry in collaboration with Sage and CEBR.
About the data behind the Nowcast
Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality.
The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on around 5 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter.
Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here.
* Note on average weekly income data
To produce these figures we run two different models; one for the GB-wide average and one for the regional averages. This is to accommodate regional-level variables not present in the national dataset. Because the national and regional figures are derived from two different models (though both trained on the same underlying data), it won't guarantee some of the fidelity you might expect such as the national average being equal to the average over regions.
