Insights from the April Nowcast: Positive Economic Movements

The Economic Nowcast uses near-real-time financial data, and offers an early view of how account holders are really coping. Smart Data Foundry have been providing Nowcast insights for 12 months now and we are able to look back and report on year-on-year changes alongside our standard monthly updates. 

The current Nowcast figures provide policymakers, analysts and public sector organisations with near-real time insight into key economic wellbeing indicators. The Economic Nowcast has been updated with data to the 15th of March and shows a shift in a positive economic direction, with average incomes increasing across Great Britain and living beyond means decreasing.  

At a glance:

• Living Beyond Means: 10.2% (0.2% decrease)
• Average Weekly Income: £355.01 (2.07% increase)
• Small Business Productivity: £11,135 (0.598% increase)

Regional Insights 

Our Living Beyond Means metric captures the share of accounts where expenditure exceeds income by 20% or more. Income includes wages, benefits and pensions, allowing us to track changes in financial health on a month-to-month basis. The downward trend in living beyond means is visible across all three nations: 

• England experienced a 0.1% reduction
• Scotland saw the largest decrease of 0.4% 
• Wales experienced a 0.1% reduction

Average weekly income shows the average weekly income across Great Britain, after tax which is calculated on a 13-week rolling average. The increase in average weekly income is reflected across all three nations, with England having the greatest increase of 1.33% and Wales following with a 1.29% increase. While Scotland had the lowest increase of 0.86%, Scottish average incomes remain the highest at £20,090.12. 

Looking wider 

Over the last 12 months account holders who are living beyond means has decreased from 14.6% in our April 2025 Nowcast update, to 10.2% of account holders living beyond means. 

Over the last 12 months average weekly incomes have increased at a high rate, in our April 2025 Nowcast update, average weekly incomes were at £319 compared to this month where they are £355.01 —an increase of 11.3%. 

National Living Wage went up by 4.1% to £12.71 per hour for over 21s on 1st April. This change will be reflected in the next Nowcast update will show the impact of this increase. It will be important to view this metric alongside the Living Beyond Means metric, as wage increase may not fully offset rising costs.

Small Business Productivity

There has been no change in the Small Business Productivity, the most recent Sage
quarterly report was released in February and can be read in full here.