Insights from the April Smart Data Foundry Economic Nowcast
Today Smart Data Foundry has launched the Economic Nowcast, designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making.
The Nowcast reveals that that 1 in 6 British adults are spending more than they earn and that average incomes were up just over half a percent, adding an extra £92 over the year to the average pay packet.
Access to timely information is more valuable than ever, as global economic conditions undergo rapid and unpredictable changes. By utilising real world, near real-time data, the Nowcast allows policymakers to gain a clearer picture of the current economic situation, supplementing official statistics and enhancing the policymaker's ability to address economic challenges swiftly and effectively.
Insights from April’s Nowcast
The April Nowcast contains three indicators, representing economic wellbeing and productivity across Great Britain. Figures are taken from a rolling average up to the observation point in mid-March. These are compared to the previous month’s figures (or previous quarter for SMB productivity) to provide immediate insight.
Average weekly income
This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 16th March 2025.
Average weekly income crept up by just over half a percentage point, hitting £319 per week.
What to look out for next time:
National Living Wage went up by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour for over 21s on 1st April. The next Nowcast update will show the impact of this increase. It will be useful to monitor this metric in conjunction with the Living Beyond Means metric, as wage rises may not fully offset rising costs.
Living beyond means
This indicator measures the proportion of people whose income does not cover their expenditure each month. This is based on a 13-week rolling average to 16th March.
14.6% of people in the UK spent 20% more than they earned, which is up slightly on the previous month.
What to look out for next time:
With April seeing household bills going up (Council Tax up by 5% and the energy price-cap up by £111 for a typical household, for example) it will be critical to monitor how this indicator changes over the coming months to see the impact on UK consumers.
SMB productivity
This indicator measures revenue in generated per employee of UK small businesses.
The average revenue per employee was £10,674 this quarter (Oct-Dec 2024), which is down 0.14% on the previous quarter (Jul-Sep 2024). Given this period included Christmas spending, it is especially surprising that revenue per employee was down slightly although this could indicate that businesses are hiring additional staff to meet festive demand.
What to look out for next time:
April saw Employer National Insurance contributions increase to 15% (up from 13.8%). Whilst this may not directly affect revenue, it will be pertinent to monitor how this increase impacts small businesses over the coming months, as some businesses may freeze hiring or increase their prices to offset these costs. The next quarterly update could also provide an insight into consumer confidence, showing how spending with small businesses has changed following April’s bill increases and the impact of US tariffs.
Deeper insights into SMB productivity can be found in the Quarterly Small Business Tracker, produced by Smart Data Foundry in collaboration with Sage and CEBR.
About the data behind the Nowcast
Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality.
The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on 5.3 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter.
Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here.
