Economic Nowcast gets regional data deep-dive
Our latest Economic Nowcast reveals striking differences in financial resilience between England, Scotland, and Wales, with many people continuing to spend beyond their means.
The Nowcast, which was launched earlier this year, has just been extended to include a breakdown of data on a nation-by-nation basis.
Based on anonymised data from 5 million consumer bank accounts and over 100,000 UK SMEs, the Nowcast offers a unique view of shifts in economic wellbeing across consumers and small businesses.
In July over 10.6% of adults in Britain spent more than they earned, equating to more than 5 million people unable to make ends meet. This is based on a British banking population of 54.4 million.
In England, 10.6% of people spent more than they earned – down just 0.4% on the previous month, compared to 10.4% in Scotland (down 1.3%) and 10.1% in Wales (down 0.3%).
Despite these challenges, the Nowcast shows there is room for some optimism about the nation’s purse strings – individual income rose sharply across all three countries with a nationwide average increase of 7.29% from June to July.
England saw the biggest boost at 6.89%, ahead of Scotland at 6.29% and Wales at 5.81%.* However, Scots have the highest incomes overall – on average they are £27.56 per week better off than their English counterparts.
The report shines a spotlight on three vital indicators of financial resilience and productivity across Great Britain – percentage of people spending more than they earn and average weekly income, both updated monthly, and small business productivity, updated each quarter.
The latest Nowcast shows that:
• 10.6% per cent of people are spending more than they earn in England, 10.4% in Scotland and 10.1% in Wales
• The average weekly income was £358.70 in Scotland, £333.09 in Wales and £331.14 in England.
• Across Great Britain, the average revenue generated per employee of small businesses in Q2 was £11,028 – a 4.19% rise on Q1.
Dougie Robb, CEO of Smart Data Foundry, said: “It’s valuable not only to see variations in economic resilience across Great Britain as a whole, but to be able to drill down into what is happening within each of the three nations.
“Whilst the precise reasons incomes are improving aren't always clear from the data, we believe there are a number of factors potentially driving this such as minimum wage increases being reflected in the data, people in sectors like hospitality and travel working additional hours over the summer months, and the payment of bonuses.
“The strength of the Nowcast lies in its ability to provide near real-time insights for policymakers, analysts, and service providers. By capturing monthly variations, emerging trends, and the economic impact of global events, extreme weather such as floods, and other shocks, it supplements official statistics and enhances the ability to respond to economic challenges quickly and effectively."
He added that over time he expects that the Nowcast will serve as a valuable indicator of the impact of key factors, such as recent interest rate cuts, changes to the energy price cap on consumers, and the effect of trade tariffs on small businesses.
The Economic Nowcast is available on our website as an open source of insight.
Later this year, we plan to expand the reach of our Economic Wellbeing Explorer across Great Britain this Autumn. The interactive dashboard - which tracks economic resilience and wellbeing at national, regional, and local levels, and between age groups and income ranges - has already been adopted by several local authorities in Scotland.
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*Note on average weekly income data - To produce these figures, Smart Data Foundry runs two different models; one for the GB-wide average and another for the regional averages. This is to accommodate regional-level variables not present in the national dataset. Because the national and regional figures are derived from two different models (though both trained on
