Updates from the October Economic Nowcast

The Smart Data Foundry Economic Nowcast has been updated for October 2025, and shows that, at national level, the proportion of people spending more than their income continues to grow, and average incomes once again declined. 

The Nowcast now provides regional breakdowns for England, Scotland and Wales and these show an uneven picture in economic wellbeing trends across the three nations. 

Our Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making. 

By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economic landscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively. 

Living beyond means 

This indicator measures the proportion of people living beyond means (spending 120% of their income from salary, benefits and pensions). This data was observed on 14th September 2025. 

Across GB average proportion of people living beyond their means is 13%, up 1.4% on the previous month. 

This indicator has increased at similar levels across Great Britain; 

• For England this was up by 1.4% to 13.2% 

Whilst Scotland has the lowest proportion of people living beyond their means, it also saw the highest growth in the proportion of people whose income does not match their expenditure.  

Average weekly income 

This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average. This data was observed on 14th September 2025. 

Average incomes continue to fall after August’s peak of £337 per week (£17,524 per year), dropping by a further 3.14% to £317.29 per week (£16, 499 per year) – almost £1000 per year off the average income.  

Once again, people in Scotland have the highest average incomes, at £348.89 per week with England and Wales over £30 per week behind at £315.06 per week and £313.40 per week, however all regions saw a decline: 

• England down 2.94% MoM 
• Wales down 2.87% MoM 
• Scotland down 2.3% MoM 

About the data behind the Nowcast 

Smart Data Foundry works with trusted data partners to responsibly share de-identified financial data for good. This data is used in research, policy making and public service delivery and supports decisions which improve economic wellbeing and reduce poverty and inequality. 

The Economic Nowcast is underpinned by a dataset built on around 5 million consumer bank accounts and thousands of SMEs. This data is regularly shared by our data partners, prepared and aggregated by our data science team to produce the Nowcast indicators. Each indicator is updated either monthly (or quarterly for SMB performance), and allows users to compare with the previous month and quarter. 

Learn more about the Nowcast, including our methodology, here. 

* Note on average weekly income data 

To produce these figures we run two different models; one for the GB-wide average and one for the regional averages. This is to accommodate regional-level variables not present in the national dataset. Because the national and regional figures are derived from two different models (though both trained on the same underlying data), it won't guarantee some of the fidelity you might expect such as the national average being equal to the average over regions. 

Explore near real-time economic insights

Financial data doesn't just reflect the economy, it is the economy.

Every transaction, loan application and payment reveals something about the state of the UK economy.

We use this financial data to create our Nowcast, a near real-time economic pulse, with the potential to spot economic trends and changes months before official statistics catch up.

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