Insights from the May Nowcast

7 Jun 20264 min readby Sacha Baillie

The Economic Nowcast uses near-real-time financial data and offers an early view of how account holders are really coping. Smart Data Foundry have been providing Nowcast insights for 12 months now and we are able to look back and report on year-on-year changes alongside our standard monthly updates.

The current Nowcast figures provide policymakers, analysts and public sector organisations with near-real time insight into key economic wellbeing indicators. The Economic Nowcast has been updated with data to the 12th of April.

At a glance:

Living Beyond Means: 10.3% (0.1%-point increase)

Average Weekly Income: £357.25 (0.63%-point increase)

Living Beyond Means:

Our Living Beyond Means metric captures the share of accounts where expenditure exceeds income by 20% or more. Income includes wages, benefits and pensions, allowing us to track changes in financial health on a month-to-month basis. There was a lot of fluctuation between the three nations; with increases, decreases, and static changes this month:

England remained at 10.3%, experiencing no change
Scotland saw the largest increase of 0.8 percentage points 
Wales experienced a 0.3 percentage point reduction

Average Weekly Income:

Average weekly income shows the average weekly income across Great Britain, after tax which is calculated on a 13-week rolling average. Overall, Great Britain experienced an increase in average weekly income, now sitting at £357.25, but there was variation in the month-on-month changes for each region.

England had the greatest increase of 0.93 percentage points and Scottish average incomes increased by 0.17 percentage points but remain the highest at £386.99 per week. However, following last month’s 1.29% increase Wales had a 0.22 percentage point decrease in average weekly income.

For the average weekly income indicator, we compare mid-month data with data from the middle of the previous month to avoid spikes caused by salary events. With National Living Wage having increased by 4.1% to £12.71 per hour for over 21s on 1st April, we will begin to see an increase in average living wage but this may not be fully reflected until next month’s Nowcast update.