Insights from November’s Economic Nowcast
The Smart Data Foundry Economic Nowcast has been updated for November 2025, and shows that, at national level, there has been a decrease in the proportion of people spending more than their income and an increase in average weekly incomes.
The Nowcast now provides regional breakdowns for England, Scotland and Wales and these show an uneven picture in economic wellbeing trends across the three nations.
Our Nowcast is updated monthly and is designed to equip policymakers, analysts, and service providers with the timely insights necessary for proactive, data-informed decision-making.
By leveraging real-world, near real-time data, the Nowcast provides policymakers with a more accurate view of the current economiclandscape. This complements official statistics and strengthens their ability to access the timely information required to respond to shifting economic challenges quickly and effectively.
Living beyond means
This indicator measures the proportion of people living beyond means (spending 120% of their income from salary, benefits and pensions). This data was observed on 12th October 2025.
After increasing by 1% last month, the proportion of people spending 120% or more of their income (salary, pensions & benefits) has decreased by 1.2% to 11.8%.
What’s the regional picture?
Once again, the regional breakdown shows a more complex picture. This indicator has decreased at similar levels across Great Britain;
- For England this was down by 1.1% to 12.1%
- For Wales this was down 1.5% to 11.5%
- For Scotland this was down by 1.3% to 10.7%
Average weekly income
This indicator measures average GB weekly income, based on a 13-week rolling average to 12th October 2025.
After last month’s decline, average weekly incomes have risen by 3.04% up to £326.93 per week (equating to £17,000.36 per year). Average incomes remain below August’s peak of £337 per week (£17,524 per year),
What’s the regional picture?
People in Scotland have the highest average incomes, at £360.82 per week with England and Wales over £30 per week behind at £323.40 per week and £326.67 per week. However, after last month’s decline across all regions, all regions saw an increase:
- England up 2.65% MoM
- Wales up 4.23% MoM
- Scotland up 3.46% MoM
Small Business Productivity
This indicator comes from the Sage Q3 2025 Small Business Tracker, developed in collaboration with Smart Data Foundry and cebr. The Tracker analyses anonymised Sage Accounting and Payroll data from over 140,000 UK Small and Mid-sized Businesses (SMBs) and examines their performance in the current economic climate.
Productivity is defined as the revenue in real terms generated per employee. It has increased 0.38% to £11,070 since last quarter but has fallen by 4.6% year on year.
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